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Michael Pachter gets his own show, unbuttons his shirt
We frequently see the words produced by gaming industry superanalyst Michael Pachter -- however, a new piece of programming on GameTrailers gives us the rare opportunity to hear them straight from the man himself. Yes, a new video segment titled "Pach-Attack" gives the technoprophet his own soapbox from which he can voice his opinions and say his sooths, all presented in crystal-clear HD video.
We've embedded the inaugural episode of Pach-Attack after the jump. If you happen to check it out, you'll need to keep reminding yourself that the casually-buttoned gentleman you're viewing isn't actually Don Johnson.
We've embedded the inaugural episode of Pach-Attack after the jump. If you happen to check it out, you'll need to keep reminding yourself that the casually-buttoned gentleman you're viewing isn't actually Don Johnson.
Pachter: Netflix on Wii won't matter as much as on other consoles
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter doesn't think the announcement of Netflix streaming on Wii is that big of a deal in growing the rental service's customer base. Pachter's perspective is that "fewer than 20 percent" of the US's 26 million Wii owners are connected to the internet, which is a necessary component to stream movies through the service. In comparison, he believes over 75 percent of Xbox 360 and PS3 users are caught up in the internets.
IndustryGamers reports that Pachter expects "some traction" from the Wii announcement, but that it won't "jump start Netflix activations." He believes the Nintendo console's installed base will "embrace the Netflix service only gradually." With so many consumer electronics receiving the Netflix streaming service, Pachter does believe it'll "allow Netflix to maintain its prior pace of subscriber additions as new customer additions from the Xbox 360 installed base begin to slow."
IndustryGamers reports that Pachter expects "some traction" from the Wii announcement, but that it won't "jump start Netflix activations." He believes the Nintendo console's installed base will "embrace the Netflix service only gradually." With so many consumer electronics receiving the Netflix streaming service, Pachter does believe it'll "allow Netflix to maintain its prior pace of subscriber additions as new customer additions from the Xbox 360 installed base begin to slow."
Pachter predicts another Xbox 360 price cut in 2010

Pachter adds that while Microsoft "has the ability to lower price yet again," it probably won't do so until "it begins to lose significant market share to Sony." As with all conjecture -- even when delivered by professional conjecture conjurers -- we suggest considering Pachter's educated guess as just that: a guess.
Pachter: Modern Warfare 2 sold 6m units in Nov.; PS3 hardware sales skyrocketed

The report also awards a large gold-star sticker to the PlayStation 3, which is predicted to have sold 700,000 units in November, an 85-percent year-over-year sales increase. Despite the two upswings, Pachter's report ends on a decidedly dour note, stating, "as 2009 draws to an end, it is clear that it will end as a horrible year for video game publishers." Pachter suggests that sales will drop off once more in December. Happy holidays, gaming industry professionals!
Pachter: Project Natal will cost $50, 'Sphere' no more than $100 [update]
Over at IndustryGamers, everyone's favorite video game predicterer (we're still working on that one) Michael Pachter has taken the reigns of the site and offers his own extensive diatribe on the future of Sony and Microsoft's upcoming new tech: Project Natal and the PlayStation Motion Controller (rumored to be called Sphere). Pachter's assertion is that price will be Natal's biggest selling point and Microsoft will try to expand upon its market of established Xbox 360 owners by offering the device for $50. For Sony's doodad, Pachter says the company is "trying to create an answer to the success of the Wii."
Pachter even likens the future state of a Natal-enabled Xbox 360 to the current state of the iPhone -- with features like Twitter, Netflix, Last.fm and Facebook inside Microsoft's box and its intuitive interface, he says casual or non-playing members of Xbox 360 households will become interested. And then when it's bundled with all new Xbox 360s, he says that'll expand Microsoft's reach even more.
For the motion-controlled competition, Pachter says he'd be surprised if Sony's asking price was over $100, and stresses that both Microsoft and Sony need to keep "the consumer's cost relatively low in order to achieve broad penetration."
[Update: Corrected Pachter's belief that the motion controller would be no more than $100. We sincerely apologize for the misinterpretation and the consequent misinformation.]
Pachter even likens the future state of a Natal-enabled Xbox 360 to the current state of the iPhone -- with features like Twitter, Netflix, Last.fm and Facebook inside Microsoft's box and its intuitive interface, he says casual or non-playing members of Xbox 360 households will become interested. And then when it's bundled with all new Xbox 360s, he says that'll expand Microsoft's reach even more.
For the motion-controlled competition, Pachter says he'd be surprised if Sony's asking price was over $100, and stresses that both Microsoft and Sony need to keep "the consumer's cost relatively low in order to achieve broad penetration."
[Update: Corrected Pachter's belief that the motion controller would be no more than $100. We sincerely apologize for the misinterpretation and the consequent misinformation.]
The internets present: Michael Pachter FACTS
Joystiq admittedly went a little crazy with stories involving Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter recently. But, how can the internet blame us? The man is such an important figure. Not only to the video game industry, but to the current state of humanity. Inspired by Harmonix's Alex Navarro, the facts of Michael Pachter's importance were spoken across the Twitterverse and compiled by one Jared Newman. A small sampling:
Joys- Pachstiq.
- When Michael Pachter gets the Red Ring of Death, he sends Microsoft a coffin.
- Publications often misrepresent Michael Pachter as a "Wedbush Morgan Analyst." No company can contain Michael Pachter.
- Michael Pachter willed the Dreamcast to its destruction. No one can cast dreams except Michael Pachter.
- There is a little-known seventh ESRB rating: P. It stands for Pachter. P-rated games can only be played by the awesome.
- Michael Pachter has learned to suppress the pon farr. He's that logical.
Pachter: Nintendo is benefiting from global recession side effects

Pachter writes on page nine of the report, "The global recession served to benefit Nintendo at its competitors' expense," referencing Microsoft and Sony as having slower console sales this generation due to HDTV functionality built into the systems. He argues that consumers who might purchase the Xbox 360 or PlayStation 3 are more likely to buy the Wii not only because of the lower price point, but because of the subsequent HDTV purchase price. "Expect most consumers to defer purchasing a PS3 or an Xbox 360 until they have purchased an HD monitor," Pachter explains. Though we're not convinced that the same folks who would be purchasing an Xbox 360 or a PS3 would be running out to buy a Nintendo Wii in every case, we digress. What say you, Joystiq Biomass?
Pachter: Mobile games are a fad, EA's emphasis on sector 'misplaced'

In a section titled "Mobile Phone Games are a Fad," Pachter explains that, while 1 billion iPhone applications have been downloaded across 31 million Apple products sold, "it is not evident that more than 20% of these downloads are games." Suggesting the iTunes App Store has generated "under $400 million in game downloads" in its first year. Pachter does predict the mobile game industry will grow at 25% per year for a few years, but will eventually fall as competing devices enter the market.
The report also calls Electronic Arts' emphasis on mobile games "misplaced." EA Mobile has grown steadily over the last few years, but the report estimates the mobile games division is -- along with that of competitors Gameloft and GLU Mobile -- "barely profitable."
According to the report, finger pointing in Apple's camp should directed toward the "open forum" structure of the store and Apple's business model. Apple runs the game download service for an estimated 30% fee, leaving 70% to the game's publisher, the report claims. The section on mobile games goes on to conclude that handheld systems, like the new PSP Go, will "maintain its niche, without significant cannibalization" from the mobile games industry.
Top brands of 2008 owned by Nintendo, EA, Activision, and not Sony

And boy, did they. The top brand of the year, Guitar Hero -- perhaps you've heard of it -- was responsible for $992 million in US sales in 2008. The next two brands, Mario Bros. and Rock Band, generated $761 million and $662 million, respectively.
One company is notably absent from the top brands list: "Most strikingly," the report reads, "Sony had no top 30 brands for the third year in a row." Microsoft had two brands on the list (Gears of War and Fable) and Nintendo had four (Mario Bros., Wii Fit, Wii Play, and Pokémon). See the list of brands after the break.
Pachter: PS2 software sales to become 'almost irrelevant' in 2009

Sony's probably not ready to give up on its most cost-efficient console, but as history has proven, nothing gold can stay in the fast-paced, constantly evolving world of video gaming hardware.
Pachter: WiiHD still coming, Xbox in third by 2015
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter is no stranger to the gaming scene. In fact, it's his job to guesstimate, speculate, and estiguess on all things gaming, and in his latest report (via IndustryGamers), he paints the future for all three console manufacturers.
First up is Nintendo, a company that Pachter believes will remain in the top spot throughout this console generation. Due to the Wii's "low price point, innovative control mechanism, and compatibility with standard definition televisions." Pachter thinks that Nintendo will rest easy atop the gaming mountain. And he thinks the Wii HD is a big part of it, as Pachter firmly believes Nintendo will introduce a HD-compatible Wii at some point, even as early as next year.
Then there's Sony and its PS3. Pointing to Sony's win in the Blu-ray vs HD DVD war, Pachter says the PS3 will capture "significant market share" through this alone, and says the company will take second place. Regardless, Pachter sees the PS3 and Xbox 360 sharing very similar market share at the conclusion of this generation.
Moving on to Microsoft, Pachter believes the company will end this generation in third, largely due to the console's inability to sell in Japan. Pachter downplays the "losing" angle, however, stating that he believes Microsoft will sell twice as many Xbox 360s as the company did the original Xbox, which, granted it actually happens, would be a nice feather in Microsoft's cap.
First up is Nintendo, a company that Pachter believes will remain in the top spot throughout this console generation. Due to the Wii's "low price point, innovative control mechanism, and compatibility with standard definition televisions." Pachter thinks that Nintendo will rest easy atop the gaming mountain. And he thinks the Wii HD is a big part of it, as Pachter firmly believes Nintendo will introduce a HD-compatible Wii at some point, even as early as next year.
Then there's Sony and its PS3. Pointing to Sony's win in the Blu-ray vs HD DVD war, Pachter says the PS3 will capture "significant market share" through this alone, and says the company will take second place. Regardless, Pachter sees the PS3 and Xbox 360 sharing very similar market share at the conclusion of this generation.
Moving on to Microsoft, Pachter believes the company will end this generation in third, largely due to the console's inability to sell in Japan. Pachter downplays the "losing" angle, however, stating that he believes Microsoft will sell twice as many Xbox 360s as the company did the original Xbox, which, granted it actually happens, would be a nice feather in Microsoft's cap.
Pachter: Wii price drop coming before the holiday
Michael Pachter loves low prices. First he does flip floppings around the PSP Go's price and now he's predicting a Wii price drop later this year. He notes that "Wii supply has finally exceeded demand," and that he "expect[s] Nintendo to cut the price of the Wii before [the] holiday." If true, this would be the first price drop since the Wii's release in late 2006.
Alternatively, Nintendo could simply bundle the system with software in order to persuade people to buy the system. Wii Sports was a good enough selling point back in ought-six, so why not a Wii, Wii Sports Resort and Wii MotionPlus bundle? Still, Pachter's pretty well known around these parts, so he's bound to be right. Who knows, maybe the price drop will arrive just in time for the Wii HD announcement, right Michael?
Alternatively, Nintendo could simply bundle the system with software in order to persuade people to buy the system. Wii Sports was a good enough selling point back in ought-six, so why not a Wii, Wii Sports Resort and Wii MotionPlus bundle? Still, Pachter's pretty well known around these parts, so he's bound to be right. Who knows, maybe the price drop will arrive just in time for the Wii HD announcement, right Michael?
Pachter apologizes for comments about PSP Go's rip-off price
Michael Pachter has stated he "sincerely" regrets commenting that Sony is ripping off consumers with the PSP Go's $250 price point. In an interview with IndustryGamers, Pachter takes the opportunity at the end to say that he doesn't believe Sony is doing anything nefarious and has "the right to price its products at a point that they think is competitive." He states the company is pricing the handheld to be competitive with the iPod Touch and that the PSP Go "arguably has much more value than the Apple product."
Hmm, as much as we respect Present Pachter's opinion, Past Pachter was a little more on the ball with the consumer's perspective of the PSP Go's pricing. Past Pachter noted, "The $169 PSP-3000 is a profitable device -- the disc assembly, for a UMD, costs more than 16 gigs of flash does. So this new device doesn't cost them as much as the PSP-3000 and they jack the price up $80?" It seems Past Pachter was viewing the product through consumer eyes, while Present Pachter is in business mode and wearing the glasses of the Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter.
Hmm, as much as we respect Present Pachter's opinion, Past Pachter was a little more on the ball with the consumer's perspective of the PSP Go's pricing. Past Pachter noted, "The $169 PSP-3000 is a profitable device -- the disc assembly, for a UMD, costs more than 16 gigs of flash does. So this new device doesn't cost them as much as the PSP-3000 and they jack the price up $80?" It seems Past Pachter was viewing the product through consumer eyes, while Present Pachter is in business mode and wearing the glasses of the Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter.
Gallery: PSP Go
Take-Two takes $100 million in 'convertible senior notes,' we poke Pachter to explain
Take-Two announced today it intends to offer $100 million of "convertible senior notes" due in 2014. We have not a clue what that means, so we contacted Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter, who not only is a master of prognostication, but apparently knows quite a fair share about business (for real!). Pachter explains:
Thanks, Michael!
- Convertible - "Means that the debt can be repaid with stock at the borrower's option."
- Senior -- "Means that it stands in line ahead of all other debt in the case of bankruptcy -- not likely, but it makes the interest rate lower."
- Note -- "Is debt."
Thanks, Michael!
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Analysts predict over ten million sales for MotionPlus

Pachter believes that the sales will happen early on, driven by bundles of early MotionPlus compatible software: "I think around 20 percent of Wii owners in the US and Europe will have bought Wii Sports Resort, Tiger Woods PGA Tour 10 or EA Sports Grand Slam Tennis," Pachter told Edge, "so that's around eight million." He added, "I think another two million will buy MotionPlus with new consoles."
Divnich thinks three million units will sell through this holiday season, but it will take an additional year to achieve the ten-million-plus level of sales. "For the Wii MotionPlus, we currently expect the install base to reach over 11 million units by the end of Nintendo's next fiscal year in March 2011, a 15 percent penetration."
Both analysts think Red Steel 2 is a risk that could pay off for Ubisoft. "Red Steel 2 may come along at precisely the right time, around when people are ready for another [MotionPlus] game," Pachter said. "The risk is really more a function of competition, compounded by the risk that Ubisoft could make a bad game." Both analysts believe that Red Steel 2 will be bundled with a MotionPlus.

















