Analyst: Next Nintendo console 'may' release before competition

by Chris Greenhough { Aug 25th 2008 at 5:30PM }

Wii 2? Click for further Wii mockup lulz.

And statements don't get much vaguer than that, do they? Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian has published an investor note concerning the next round of consoles, full of words such as "may" and "could." According to Sebastian, new hardware is most likely to appear from the industry's major players in 2012, though he thinks Nintendo's next home console may release sooner, and could be an upgraded Wii with increased processing power, greater storage ~~for moaning geeks and otaku~~, and DVD playback capabilities.

Our problem with this? Sebastian seems to automatically assume that Nintendo will simply produce a box stuffed with superior technology. Anybody who has followed Nintendo over the last five years will know that that is probably the last thing the company is likely to do.

Gallery: Nintendo Wii mockups

Tags: analyst, business, colin-sebastian, dvd, speculation, storage, wii-2

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

Mr Khan @ Aug 25th 2008 5:39PM

Really it could go either way at this point. We all assumed that Nintendo would move faster than the others. They had to, their machine was so, so far behind in terms of technology

However, since technology is pretty much a non-issue for their current business model, they could keep rolling with Wii for a long time, possibly, and wind up releasing a successor 1-2 years after everyone else has moved on.

However. I think that, in the end, they will transition Wii and Next the way they transitioned between GBA and DS, or the PS1/PS2 transition, giving an equal amount of support across both, and phasing the older one out after a year or so

Duke @ Aug 25th 2008 5:51PM

I would guess they would take the Wii for a few spins, offering new colors and features to grab more buyers when sales go down a bit. I would think we next get a Wii with a HD or something like that.

Daniel @ Aug 25th 2008 6:56PM

I think the next "Wii" will be a "WiiHD", which means basically the same system, but with enough fill-rate to do everything now in HD. Basic improvements like more memory and storage are inevitable. Probably some minor feature improvements too like built-in motionplus, adjustable sensor bar for large and small environments, and a small screen on the WiiMote.

I do expect a balance board update that is something like a roll-up fitness mat but with a grid of pressure points that can detect where each part of your body touches the mat and how much pressure you're putting on it. That way, it could sense if you are laying down, if more than one player is on the mat, or if you want to do more than one analog x-y axis.

Mr Khan @ Aug 25th 2008 7:42PM

I doubt they would bother, though the Wii has the numerical capabilities to do things in HD, there are a lot of other system revisions they need to go through

Colors, first and foremost, then built-in ethernet, more on-board memory, then if it isn't already time for the next console, HD

comtar @ Aug 26th 2008 10:32AM

Why is this the least likely thing Nintendo would do?

When the NES was king, Nintendo hoarded their cash and made the SNES, which at the time was the most elaborate graphical system at the time. Nintendo since the SNES, hasn't had the funds to invest in the development and creation in a beefy system in a while, and the last time they did with the Gamecube, it bombed... But now Nintendo is hoarding their cash again for something... we don't know what, but they aren't just simply swimming in these funds they are getting, most likely they want to make the Wii a household name that a Wii2 (or I like to call WII) would be a machine that can compete with the PS3 and X-box 360 graphically, yet still be cheap to cost.

Grant @ Aug 25th 2008 6:15PM

#4 in that mockup gallery was actually pretty close.

igorponweed @ Aug 25th 2008 6:48PM

I can see this happening. But they would just be late to the next gen party a year or two.

Chris Are @ Aug 25th 2008 6:57PM

My favorite is the Novint Falcoln one. I've always thought that would be a fantastic product on a console- though considering today's trends there would be like 4 games that really took advantage of the controls/ capabilities, and the rest would be really lame.

vidGuy @ Aug 25th 2008 7:10PM

Ah, nothing like vague statements to get your name out there. My prediction is the same as it was the day the Wii released: the next Nintendo console will

- have roughly the power of the 360
- look similar and have a similar name to the Wii
- release months before the next Microsoft console
- and be full backwards compatible with the Wii and it's backwards compatiblity

Mr Khan @ Aug 25th 2008 7:40PM

probably stronger CPU than the 360, and maybe more RAM

prices of multicore CPUs are dropping rather quickly, and IBM's already doing efficient PowerPC-based CPUs for 360, so it wouldn't be hard for them to design something similar and cheap for Wii next

And if it's backwards-compatible with Wii, it quite literally has to be backwards-compatible with GC.

Hamster @ Aug 25th 2008 9:36PM

I think Nintendo's next console will be considerably more powerful than a 360. They may be getting away with having the weakest console this gen, but I don't think they'd risk having one that was an entire generation behind the competition in the next one.

After all, Miyamoto himself said that just because graphical improvements weren't important to Nintendo this time round doesn't mean they won't be again in the future.

vidGuy @ Aug 25th 2008 10:07PM

In nearly all measures, the Wii is only slightly more powerful than the original XBOX. It is certainly more akin to last generation's consoles than this generation. I don't see why Nintendo would abandon this winning strategy in order to improve it's hardware beyond the 360.

Plus, they have to keep it all packed in a nice little box ;)

samfish @ Aug 25th 2008 10:35PM

I think they'll make their next console a good 3-4 times as powerful as the PS3. Meanwhile, I think the PS4 and Xbox3 will be in the neighborhood of 5-7 times as powerful, as opposed to the 15-20 times they're estimated to be at now.
I can't imagine Nintendo wants to be in a position next gen where they lose out of all the 'hardcore' games again, since those are just money in the bank for them. Equally, I can't imagine Sony and MS are going to try and swallow multi-billion dollar hardware loses again, since the Wii has proven that the overwhelming majority of people don't really give all that much of a damn about graphics and such.
They'll all launch at less than $300, too.

Hamster @ Aug 25th 2008 11:35PM

I guess you're right vidGuy, but I suppose my point would be "winning strategies" don't often last forever. Many people see the Wii as a novelty item and I'm not necessarily talking about its detractors, many people are buying the Wii as a novelty item, Nintendo even markets it as a novelty item (which annoys me greatly, but that's another story). And with something like that, lightning doesn't often strike twice. The Wii is a unique (some might say quirky) product in the right place at the right time and I think it would be risky for Nintendo to carry the exact same philosophy into next gen and so I think they need to make it at least closer to its competitors in terms of power than the Wii is. For the number-one selling console and market leader, the Wii's third-party support is still extremely poor and Nintendo could alienate third-parties even worse next gen if they don't push the graphical envelope a bit more.

KaBob799 @ Aug 25th 2008 7:11PM

I'm hoping they don't release an early system (with all the new peripherals, why would they?) but that they use all the money they are making to do some major upgrades to their next system without giving the system a high price (I'm hoping for $300)

vidGuy @ Aug 25th 2008 7:20PM

It took 23 years for Nintendo to raise it's console price from $200 to $250. I imagine the next one will release at USD$249.99 as well.

TJF588 @ Aug 25th 2008 7:20PM

The "Wii Too", released in 2012, will be simply a beefier version of the current model, albeit with built-in MotionPlus.

IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD (as we know it)!!

R.I.P.
The World
prehistory-December 2012

Patrick @ Aug 25th 2008 8:55PM

and I feel fine?

Mark @ Aug 26th 2008 9:57AM

@Patrick

You never heard of the Mayan Doomsday Prophecy? The end of the world is supposedly going to end December 2012.

wud_e @ Aug 26th 2008 10:56AM

@Mark, He was referring to the song which TJF588 was singing/typing.

"It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine."

Besides I think the 2012 is definitely going to be the start of the end. End of this system of things and the start of the NWO.

CJLopez @ Aug 26th 2008 1:09PM

Its not like that December 2012 will be the end of the world, but is the last date on the mayan calendar, i mean, they couldn't get the calculation for dates besides january 2013, cuz the spanish people came and killed everyone, xDDDDDD

Still, its just a rumor that that date will be the end, it might be like what the songs says, "Its the end of the way, as we know it" Hell, it happened in the past, after 9/11 the world as we know it ended and entered into a new kind of world, even in the mayan calendar was stated that by september 24 2001 was going to happen (a miscalculation of only 13 days)

Gotta respect the mayan profecies

Andrei @ Aug 26th 2008 6:57AM

Oh my god! no no no! i gonna die it's fake it's fake!
soz but it is fake. :D

Loudfiero @ Aug 26th 2008 7:19AM

The Wii's gpu needs a major overhaul to do HD. An HD Wii successor would probably contain the Wii gpu as an extra expense like the PS3 did with PS2 chips for a while. On the cpu side, things could get upped in power and maintain compatibility. The Wii's cpu is only about 1/2 as powerful as the 360's as it stands now. Don't believe the hype of the Wii's cpu being 1/6th as powerful...

Mazrael @ Aug 26th 2008 2:57PM

Your kidding right? a 729Mhz Wii cpu is no where near half a powerful as a triple core 3.2Ghz.. just one of the three 360 cores is 4 times that of the Wii's.. which I think, the next Wii will be 3.2Ghz single core or 2.8Ghz dual core, 512mb gddr3 ram & 450mhz gpu & use notebook sata hard drives just like the PS3 does (and 360 should of)..