CNET sees PS3 beating Wii ... in 2012

by David Hinkle { May 22nd 2008 at 11:00AM }

You see that chart right there? That's the predicted outcome of the console war this generation, courtesy of CNET. Aside from the hate in your heart caused by those black bars cruising past those lovely blue ones around the year 2012, what else do you see? Grim future for that Xbox 360? According to CNET, it will be.

What do you all think about this projected outcome? Do you think the Wii's popularity will sustain at such a high level for the next 4 years (it does have a lot going for it)? Do you see the demand dying down a bit soon? Also, what are all those people of the future buying PS3s for? Is it a prediction of the future for some kind of alternate universe where the PS3 has games worth playing?

[Via NeoGAF]

Tags: analyst, business, cnet, console-war, microsoft, prediction, ps3, salesfigures, sony, xbox, xbox360

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)

mgroves @ May 22nd 2008 11:11AM

I can't see the 360 doing nearly as bad as those projections, but who knows?

Sonic_13 @ May 22nd 2008 12:17PM

The 360's numbers aren't exactly bad...they would be about twice the original Xbox numbers.

Co @ May 22nd 2008 12:21PM

man just wait until this article hits Joystiq. Has the server ever crashed from too much traffic? We'll find out then.

John Rios @ May 22nd 2008 11:13AM

360 will do better. PS3 worse. But really, who the hell can tell what games each console will be releasing in 4 years? It really depends on the games. People make charts like this to stir up controversy, it's a guess.

Orion @ May 22nd 2008 11:14AM

...And four years after the Saturn came out after a horrible start, high priced console, and few developers wanting to make games for it, it suddenly, for no reason, sold like hotcakes and outsold Playstation and the N64!

oh wait..

History repeats itself, Sony shot themselves in the foot. Not even GTA IV seemed to help, so pray tell what in the hell would? Even a few bright titles in the future can't help a fledging console. If it did, Nights, Burning Rangers, and Shining Force III might have done wonders for the Saturn, no?

Eternityx @ May 22nd 2008 11:16AM

I agree Sony shot itself in the foot by jumping the gun "technology speaking" high pricing, costly delays, and a lack of software companies willing to jump on board are going to kill it. Even if they lower prices to something of a bargain no one wants a system with crappy games when you can get 75% of them already on a 360.

Mr Khan @ May 22nd 2008 5:32PM

Yes, but the PS3's architecture is nowhere near the clusterfuck that the beloved Saturn's was

Orion @ May 22nd 2008 5:46PM

True, but it doesn't mean that developers know what the hell to do with it. Sure in a few years they might, and so it was with the Saturn as well.. but a few years is too late.

Good games coming out in 2-4 years, which by then the system will have already been cast aside by gamers and devs will bring exactly what those two groups bought to the Saturn. IE: you get good games that take advantage of the system by that time, but the consumer has already moved on.

Don't get me wrong, I love my Saturn and the games that came out for it. And I'm sure the same will be said by many when the PS3 fades away, but I'll also be the first to admit my favorite classic system was a dud...and the PS3 is driving on an oh so familiar path.

dlc3007 @ May 22nd 2008 11:17AM

Wonder how much money someone would pay me to sit around and make up BS all day. What a great job!
A bar-graph here, a pie chart there and hand over my check!

Chris @ May 23rd 2008 1:19AM

That's exactly what I was thinking. Really, the only reason this guy is getting the coverage he is getting is because he's saying the currently last-place console will overtake the currently first place console... oh yeah, and throw in something about the 360... even though, as it seems right now, that's the system that will probably be the most solid by the end of this gen.

Spencer @ May 22nd 2008 12:29PM

Ahhhhahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

With yet another "PS3 Exclusive!!!" (for 3 months until the developer realizes that they're likely to make more money on PCs...) Haze being a major disapointment across the board... where are these numbers for the PS3 coming from? Sure the PS3 is doing better, it's delivering solid, if not remarkable games, and has the bluray player on board, but how do they go from being outsold by the wii 2:1+ for the first half of this year to equal sales next year, and outselling 2:1 the year after? It's just not logical.

jafar @ May 22nd 2008 11:18AM

how can anyone predict that....that looks way off anyway

Kenology @ May 22nd 2008 11:20AM

Anyone who analyzes the graph with even a shred of logic and reason will certainly discern that it is complete and utter BS. It seems to me that CNET just badly wants the PS3 to win as opposed to making a sound, objective analysis. First off, how is it that they expect the PS3 to sell over 4 million more units than Sony even projects for 2008? In order to reach that figure, it'd have to sell a shit ton per month from here on out (well over 100k - though I suck at math) to make it. The Xbox360 is not gonna just shrivel up and die as the graph suggests either. CNET is all about cutting-edge technology, so I don't see how they could back the Wii, but this is just ridiculous! Very entertaining too. Great stuff.

Dan @ May 22nd 2008 11:27AM

I have to say those projections are pretty stupid. What makes them think that the Wii's growth will shrink, while the PS3's growth will explode in 2009 and continue at that rate? I admit that PS3 has a better shot at Japan than Xbox, but even then....

thefifthbeatle @ May 22nd 2008 11:28AM

Hmmm... isn't cnet the parent company or at least affiliated with gamespot. We all know Gamespot is know for their credibility... Kane and Lynch anyone?

The_Mike @ May 22nd 2008 11:37AM

If anyone would have read the article (by clicking on the graph) you would have seen the chart's stats are from an analyst at IDC, not cnet.

"In a report issued earlier this year, IDC analyst Billly Pidgeon projected sales numbers for the three next-gen consoles, through 2012.

Pidgeon suggested that by 2012, the PS3 will lead the pack, with more than 107 million units sold worldwide, while the Wii will be just behind, at nearly 107 million units. "

bbelt @ May 22nd 2008 11:39AM

im bookmarking this article right next to the one from forbes about how GTA4 is the wii killer.

Jimbo @ May 22nd 2008 11:46AM

I assume by the time the PS3 "takes over" the top spot, Nintendo will have their next console out or ready to be released.

igorponweed @ May 22nd 2008 12:02PM

I think PS3 sales will not pick up until 2012. No wants Bluray yet... except everyone I know with an HDTV!

igorponweed @ May 22nd 2008 12:04PM

All 3 of them. >D

samfish @ May 22nd 2008 12:15PM

That analysis is that Billy Pidgeon dude's...I think this is technically news that's a few months old.

Anyway, I still baffle at how he came to that conclusion.
A) There is no software that looks to give PS3 that kind of momentum
B) Name recognition won't take the PS3 that far. By 2010, if not sooner, when you say 'videogame console' people are going to think 'Wii'...NOT Playstation anymore. That paradigm will have shifted. And if you don't believe me, ask the Nintendo 64.

Co @ May 22nd 2008 12:23PM

I think the graph accurately depicts 360's future. It's a system full of limitations from a growth standpoint. It's targeted audience is so small it's not even funny.

GamerJunkie @ May 22nd 2008 12:57PM

Reason that Wii sales will start to tapper off because HDTV sets will become the norm and people will demand HD content. Wii looks awful on a hi-def set, pixellation and blockiness galore.

Of course, it's all about the gameplay riiiggghhhttt?

Rolith @ May 22nd 2008 1:07PM

Uh... No... it dosen't. It's not HD, but looking "terrible"? not unless you use some weird ass transform / streach / zoom. most the games i've played look perfectly acceptable on my big ol' TV.

Haohmaru @ May 22nd 2008 7:05PM

Bad looking games? Okay. GamerJunkie.. you play WoW.

'Nuff said. :P

PiemanPieman @ May 22nd 2008 10:10PM

Right. It is all about the gameplay. I view games as one giant ball of happiness that is outside time or technology. The representations don't matter, it's all about what the hands and mind are doing. As long as the experience was made to work within the given confines, the experience to me is fairly timeless. I play old games not out of nostalgia (because I got into gaming late), but out of a desire just to play good games. Whether I'm playing Metal Gear Solid or Kirby's Adventure, the graphical representations are just a way to key in to what's really important.

Wii games don't need HD graphics. They are Wii games. I find a good many of them fun to play. DS games are 2D or low-poly low-resolution 3D. They are DS games. Many of them are fun to play. PS3 and 360 games have lighting, mood, poly-powerhousing madness. Many also, fun to play.

IBM PC circa early-mid 80s. CGA graphics. Magenta and Cyan galore. Of the few games that exist in this dimension, I find some fun to play. In the future when I take off my VR helmet I will still sit down somewhere with a D-Pad and two buttons and run through Kirby's Adventure. Cause man that game was fun to play.

Andre @ May 23rd 2008 10:32AM

If you get the component cables (about $10), it improves things a little bit.

Eddie @ May 22nd 2008 12:23PM

I've got a PS3 and a Wii, and since Super Mario Galaxy until april I didn't even tough the Wii. So we can't really say that the Wii is loaded with awesome games.

Lets not be haters, all three consoles have a lot going for them. CNET is either very smart or very naive to believe they can predict the outcome of the "console war."

RosuNamikaze [BRAWL: 2191-7424-4335] @ May 22nd 2008 12:43PM

i'm exactly the same.

PS3 and Wii, and although i'd been playing PS3 quite a bit up till the exams started here, it was still getting a bit more usage than the wii was. imported brawl when there was the american release, played mariokart to hell, galaxy was awesome, corruption i kinda got stuck and keep meaning to go back to.
I'm currently getting the crack with the wiiware stuff, and it's quite a fun wee service :)

but that's my situation, i kinda need summin big at e3, or that's what i'm hoping. i'm quite excited.
PS3's been getting attention due to gta4 and cod4.
I'm still backing 'Tendo the whole way. they're my guys :D

Lilinka @ May 22nd 2008 6:06PM

I've stopped buying 360 games since my Nth RRoD, so I can see why the growth might slow there, and I do see how Nintendo's market might eventually begin to collapse, as much as I'd love to pretend the people buying the Wii are buying it for the games, most are simply parents buying their kids the new toy. As long as Nintendo keeps innovating, they'll keep ahead, but I really wouldn't be terribly surprised to see things shift dramatically in the next four years. And this chart seems to agree with me on one key issue, even if it does win out, the PS3 isn't going to beat the Wii by a spectacular margin. I don't think it even will, but I do think that over the next four years there will probably be huge change.

Wiseguy @ May 22nd 2008 12:24PM

Interesting. Even if, as this graph projects, an unforseen miracle gives the PS3 a major boost in 2009 (which is highly questionable) it can only inch ahead Nintendo's "kiddy console" by a tiny margin... in 2012.

No matter how you slice it, Sony's monopoly on the console market is over and this generation is a major win for Nintendo compared to last.

Damitol @ May 22nd 2008 12:47PM

It's obvious the thinking behind this is that the world is moving away from standard DVD, and by 2012 Blu-ray will be in the majority of homes. As such - who wouldn't want to buy a Blu-ray player that includes a "free" PS3 game system built in?

The part they didn't consider is that by 2012, Blu-ray players will be sold in Walmart for $69.99. Economics of scale. Today only a relative handful of people are buying Blu-ray so it's expensive, but when everyone is buying it becuase its the only choice if you want to watch DVDs, prices will come way down. That "free" PS3 isn't such a bargain anymore if you are not a hard core gamer (which 98% of the population isn't.

So - as long as Nintendo keeps fresh ideas rolling (like Wii Fit and the balance board), third party developers (like High Voltage) work to capitalize on the system's strengths and everyone continues to release innovative games for both the casual and the hard core audiences (Mario Kart Wii and Mad World), that chart will give us all a good laugh in 2012.

Tristan @ May 22nd 2008 12:36PM

WEll being that 360 seems to only appeal to American and maybe some of Europe and getting sales in only the thousands in

I think PS3 price is a main factor that makes people desire it. No one flat out says its bad but rather they make factless claims to justify its fault cause they dont want to fork over money to pay for it. Thus it has become one of those objects that people dream of having thus it is a luxury that people eventually want. So its sales could eventually skyrocket in the next year or so, while WIi stays the same getting the new crowd of people to buy it.

Then with WIi owners moving on to adopt other sytems it is only going to lead to these results. no doubt no lie

Christopher Graber @ May 22nd 2008 2:37PM

It seems like these projections throw history out the window. In every game system the early winner .. .stays the winner. I would be surprised if PS3 can beat Xbox 360 in this battle (with WII as the headliner)

Of course, good games will be on xbox 360 vs PS3 due to their similar graphic power levels - so I don't see anyone losing. I bet more games continue to come out for xbox 360/PS3 vs. WII because of the idea that the two systems added together beat WII

slammed I Am @ May 22nd 2008 12:54PM

maybe this chart is supposed to predict the ps3's sales once it's supposed "killer" exclusives come out. I think you people are reading this all wrong. What Cnet is trying to say is that in 2012 games like killzone 2, MGS4, FFXIII,FF versusXIII, god of war 3, resistance 2 and even HOME will finally be released after 4 years of delays but honestly the Wii's momentum will eventually slow down because I still cant find a Wii in stores and after at least a year to two years just about everyone will have one. the 360 graph is just terrible. the 360 is doing good in america and somewhat good in Europe and is doing kinda decent in the Asian market due to the 360 releasing alot of RPG's

Dom @ May 22nd 2008 12:53PM

Hahahahaahaa, there is NO chance of PS3 ever beating the Wii. None, zip, zilch, nada. Throw that chart is the garbage. Oh and 360 is not going to be doing that bad. Retarded shit right there.

Elsnerma @ May 22nd 2008 1:05PM

This chart seems fairly accurate. Once PS3 hits a sweeter price, it'll take off like PS2 did.

I'm still doubtful it'll outsell Wii, give its huge headstart, but the quick death of the 360 seems right at least.

Kenology @ May 22nd 2008 4:18PM

What headstart!? Wii launched AFTER the PS3.

Elsnerma @ May 22nd 2008 11:11PM

Headstart in terms of sales, not when the console was released.

hvnlysoldr @ May 22nd 2008 1:06PM

360 and Wii look grounded in reality but PS3 looks like it grew exponentially.

Rolith @ May 22nd 2008 1:10PM

I'm still curious how the PS3's supposed to sell at roughly 50% higher rate then the currently supply-depleting wii sale rate. I mean, the PS3's got tons and tons of systems sitting around stores, but at the same time, they produce fewer over the course of a month than Nintendo does, and if the PS3 picks up any serious momentum, we will likely see shortages long before they do 100% sales increases per year like this chart expects.

Szu @ May 22nd 2008 1:33PM

Everytime I hear an analyst how the current 3rd place PS3 will eventually overtake the 1st place Wii, I think of this picture.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11192321&postcount=628

Wii is in blue, 360 is in green, and the PS3 is in red.

bones @ May 22nd 2008 1:42PM

If/when the XBOX360 gets BluRay things could change.

One thing I really like about the xbox is VisualStudio and XNA. It will allow a whole homebrew segment to grow. More free, small, fun games could help this console grow faster than CNET predicts.

I think Nintendo and Sony are really missing the ball on the homw brew scene.

Blehgina @ May 22nd 2008 8:01PM

What are you talking about? WiiWare is all about homebrew!

As for the whole chart thing, it doesn't make sense, you're right. People can't just shell out that much money for a console when they could get one for much cheaper and games with it for the same price. And my prediction is that FFXIII will become non-exclusive, and it's almost guaranteed that Resident Evil 5 and Metal Gear Solid 4 will jump to other systems, given the respective series' track records.

As for system specs determining the outcome, the PS2 had the worst system specs of the last generation, yet it still came out on top. It all depends on content released, not system specs.

CJLopez @ Jun 30th 2008 3:13PM

Actually, WiiWare is not homebrew, they are just small shots of games, where there is no reason to release as full retail games, but still are good games.

The Wii has its pretty big share of homebrew, and now every1 who knows of C or C++ (soon python) can enter to the scene

David W. @ May 22nd 2008 1:44PM

By 2010 I believe the new Xbox is supposed to be out...so...these numbers mean nothing.

Tesche @ May 22nd 2008 2:01PM

Here is the thing....for the purposes of this, know that I only own a Wii and PS2.
The PS3 is more future proof. The 360 is now, the PS3 is tomorrow. You do have the option for having the same games on both system...but how do you get past the fact that the PS3 can run games on disks that have 9x the space of 360 games. Already, the 360 leaves content out of games to conserve space (mostly sports titles like madden). They cover this by offering them as for purchase downloads from Live later.... As the wheel turns and the ps3 drops in price and development costs decrease (not to mention the eventual exclusives), the PS3 will out last (remember the tortise and the hare?).
The Wii is a wildcard since it is based on a completely different strategy. It will definitely hang on, but by 2012, we may see a different Wii in production...who knows.
By 2012, I fully expect to see the next itereation of the Xbox in production. They are gonna have to do something to keep up....They got the headstart, but I don't think it can last once the PS3 library builds, and you can't make the argument that the PS3 library sucks, if you recall the chart that Wii Fanboy posted here a couple of months ago showed that the PS3 actually had the highest average review scores.

Essentially, I don't think that CNET is that far off the mark.

Flame on.

Wii rocks!

BDR @ May 22nd 2008 3:18PM

just want to point out that the ps3 has the highest average review scores because games developed for it make less money than games developed for wii or 360, because of the install base. As such it manages to avoid a lot of the shovelware out there, because the quick buck that can be made on 360 or wii doesn't exist on the ps3.