Analyze this: Nintendo's next console by 2010?
by Candace Savino 
{ Feb 14th 2008 at 4:00PM }
Even though the Wii is barely past its infancy stages, many can't help but wonder when the system's successor is coming out. As of now, those of us at Nintendo Wii Fanboy are content to put that question on the backburner and simply enjoy what we have in the present. Analysts are always hungry for this type of speculation, though, and Pacific Crest Securities has decided to throw their opinion into the ring.So, what's their guess? According to PCS, Nintendo's next platform will be out by 2010. Evan Wilson of the firm stated, "We believe that peak industry sales will occur in 2010, given that Microsoft will likely introduce its next console that year and Nintendo will likely launch before then."
Now, we're not pretending to be analysts (okay, maybe a little bit), but we couldn't disagree more. We think the Wii will have a longer lifespan than three-and-a-half years, based on its current popularity and past systems' life cycles. Considering also that much of the Wii's success can be credited to the casual market, releasing a new console so soon wouldn't be a smart business decision. While core gamers and Nintendoholics would gobble it up, casuals would probably be more wary about dropping another few hundred dollars on a video game console in such a short amount of time.
The firm's analysis brings up another interesting question -- will Nintendo release its next console before Microsoft? While we agree that Sony will be the last to upgrade its hardware, it shouldn't be taken for granted that Nintendo will be first, especially since the company seems to be in no rush.
[Via Games Industry]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Co @ Feb 14th 2008 4:31PM
No. Late 2011.
Microswirl @ Feb 14th 2008 4:32PM
I think Nintendo will want to outdo themselves in the performance/horsepower department for the next console. When Nintendo can manufacture a machine exceeding Xbox360's graphical capabilities at $150 per unit and sell them at $250 per unit, then that's when they'll release a new console. I'm pretty sure, however, that it'll be a lot longer than 3 years before those manufacturing costs go down that far.
spif @ Feb 14th 2008 4:36PM
what i wonder is, what kind of backwards compatibility will the new nintendo system have? Wii BC is probably a given, but what about virtual console? Will they continue to support that function for years to come? and even more important, will the VC purchases we make now transfer to new systems or will we be screwed and left to rebuy the same games each generation?
BlackDogAssault @ Feb 14th 2008 4:38PM
It's quite foolish to expect the next-gen that early when Nintendo itself affirmed they want the Wii to be longer out there.
Btw, IF they do that, I sincerely hope they plan the backwards technology better. I skipped out on the Gamecube and having to get it's components to play its games is quite incovenient.
HellsHammer @ Feb 15th 2008 2:40PM
Like a controller and a memory card? God forbid you play Gamecube games with a Gamecube controller...
How can they plan any better than they did?
How did you deal with PS2's backward capability? or Xbox? I don't know anyone who owned an Xbox memory card.
Find something better to complain about, like lack of GBA Player support.
TriptychR @ Feb 14th 2008 4:39PM
July 27, 2012 according to the Mayan calendar.
John Rios @ Feb 14th 2008 4:49PM
Man, everyone's just DYING to find something wrong with the Wii. There's been this whole "There's GOT to be something fataly wrong with it" mentality going around since it's release that has grown even more since it's success. Face it folks, the Wii was just a REALLY GREAT, WELL EXECUTED IDEA.
Mr Khan @ Feb 14th 2008 5:28PM
There are things wrong with it, its brutally weak compared to the competition and it has a lack of epic, realistic, 3rd party content
Not fatal, but definitely flaws
(anyone who's aware of my posting history should know i'm not flaming, just saying)
Co @ Feb 15th 2008 9:08AM
Mr Khan, maybe the competitions brutally weak in the IR Courser department compared to Wii? Why does the Wii being under powered make it "wrong"? Sales aint hurtin!
And your other flaw is guaranteed to be corrected in the coming months. ALL games are coming to this system from any developer that like money. That includes the epic 3rd party ones.
Gerwurztraminer @ Feb 14th 2008 5:00PM
My guess is 2015. Don't really know why. Just because.
Also, I have a feeling Nintendo's next console will simply be 2 Wii's duct-taped together, making it 2 duct-taped GameCubes duct-taped to 2 duct-taped GameCubes, and it shall be called... (ready?) the GameCubeCube.
gevenstaines @ Feb 14th 2008 6:06PM
uh, i think you need eight equally sized cubes to make a larger cube.
Gerwurztraminer @ Feb 15th 2008 8:08AM
Not if you had enough duct tape.
Adv2k1 @ Feb 14th 2008 5:09PM
Here is a crazy idea, why have "next gen consoles".
I mean I doubt 360, or PS3 are close to be "maxed out" for years and learning how to do gestures works perfectly on Wii will take a few years.
All the systems are selling well enough, why upgrade? 5 year console cycles should end.
Kye Wii60DF @ Feb 14th 2008 5:16PM
I've got a fiver that says 2011. At about 2-3 times the graphical power of the 360.
Microsoft at the same time and Sony in hot pursuit.
Also, Gerwurztraminer. I believe your mathematics to be flawed. Four GC's would be A GameCube to the forth power.
Gerwurztraminer @ Feb 15th 2008 8:02AM
Which I suppose, would add even more confusion as to what G4 is actually supposed to be.
Also, Kye Wii60DF, I believe your spelling to be flawed. Four GC's would be A GameCube to the fourth power.
Deozaan @ Feb 15th 2008 8:00PM
You do realize that 1^4 = 1?
Four gamecubes would be 1x4 gamecubes.
Dopple Boppler @ Feb 14th 2008 5:47PM
I highly doubt it'll be 2010. I'd even be surprised with 2011 at this point. If Nintendo can keep coming up with new ideas that sell as well as Wii Fit, I see no reason for them to release a new console anytime before 2012, 2013ish. Granted, if the Wii's sales were to dramatically drop within the next year and a half then I might be singing a different tune, but I don't see that happening.
George Arauz @ Feb 14th 2008 6:08PM
Are you F'ing kidding me? Already?
gevenstaines @ Feb 14th 2008 6:09PM
the wii is great and everything, but i want a nintendo console with a quality, standard gaming controller. why has nintendo gone loony in the gamepad department since the snes?
TheOverlord#2 @ Feb 14th 2008 6:09PM
2012 is my bet.
I just hope it has the same graphical power as the PS4 & Xbox 720 and still have Virtual Console and be able to play Wii games.
(but how will it handle two sets of wireless controllers?)
Basically Wii 2.0 :D(maybe w/o waggle though, and MORE hardcore games)
MemphisNET @ Feb 14th 2008 6:13PM
When you can find more than a single Wii console on the store shelves, that's when they'll start planning the next console.
Seriously tho, 2010 seems WAY too early, and Nintendo is a stubborn gorilla.... they'll just say ''hey, we're not in the arms race anyway - let MS and Sony do what they want''
I see Q1 2009 being the time when Wii sales come down, but not so much that they're back in the Gamecube days. I wouldn't be surprised if the next system is already in the works - but we won't hear a peep for a LONG time (E3 2010 we might get the first blurbs)
nintendo1889 @ Feb 14th 2008 7:15PM
A system more graphically advanced than the PS3/Xbox 360? Is that even possible?! As if the polygon count isn't high enough! But, then again, I can see Nintendo pushing more eye candy in the Wii 2.0. Don't get me wrong, the wii can still dish out some pretty nice graphics (like Smash Bros. Brawl and Mario Galaxy for example).
gevenstaines @ Feb 14th 2008 8:32PM
oh, it's possible. of course we'll all need bionic eye implants to be able to discern the difference...
Konchu @ Feb 14th 2008 9:04PM
With the success of the Wii I suspect the Wii's successor might take the route of say the DS Lite. So they make a new version with some improved features maybe it upscales and has more onboard memory and storage. I don't think they want to alienate Wii owners by making something complete new too soon. Maybe games on this newer system could run in enhanced mode.
(01) @ Feb 14th 2008 10:00PM
It will be interesting to see how Nintendo handles backwards compatibility with the next console. If the support the Wii, motion controls are a must, if not....
fan9 @ Feb 14th 2008 10:45PM
Nintendo has already stated that their next console will have HD. On that note, we already know they are working on the next one. Sure, it may not come out till probably 2011 or around there, though you have to think what happened before.
The last generation was a short one, that was because Microsoft pushed out the 360 as soon as possible. This forced Nintendo and Sony to release the Wii and PS3 after word. Seeing that the 360 came out a year before the others, it will end early. Microsoft will no doubt bring out there next console soon. I expect it to be in late 2010.
This in turn will force Nintendo and Sony to be at the same situation once again. It is really interesting to see how this may turn out, even if Nintendo keeps insisting that they are no longer competing against the 360 and PS3.
padgon @ Feb 14th 2008 10:53PM
I actually believe that they are talking about the next “Game Boy”, because once Nintendo mention that the DS isn’t a replace of the Game Boy.
fan9 @ Feb 14th 2008 11:04PM
Nintendo stated that making a new Game Boy is not practicle at the moment seeing how well the DS is doing. We will probably not see a new Game Boy for a long time. However, that does not mean that they may be creating a new one hidden deep under the curtian.
We may see a new Game Boy after the DS cycle. This is the only logical answer to all the speculation going on about it. Which also makes Nintendo's logic about it seem accurate. We shall see.
raindog @ Feb 15th 2008 1:11AM
The thing about financial analysts making predictions about the game market is, they're basing their predictions not on how the game market works, but on an observations on how markets in general usually work: whatever the company did the last time, they'll do this time too. Unfortunately, it doesn't apply here, especially with Nintendo.
A better rule of thumb is: the market leader in each generation of game consoles lasts about 10 years if they remain in the market, and as a corollary, the less successful a console, the shorter its lifespan. As far as the time between new console releases goes, it's pretty much been 5-6 years for the market leader, a year or two less for everyone else.
Playstation 2? 7 years and still going strong. 6 years till its successor was released.
Playstation? About 10. PS2 released 6 years later.
SNES/Genesis? OK, that generation was kind of a tie, and neither of them lasted a decade. Both consoles' successors showed up after 5 or 6 years.
NES? About 10. The SNES took 7 years to show up.
Atari? The 2600 lasted 15 years. Meanwhile, Atari launched failed successor after failed successor, starting with the 5200 after 5 years.
Nintendo has changed the rules of the game, but if anything, I expect them to stretch the Wii's lifespan out with incremental, backward-compatible upgrades.
Jumbo @ Feb 15th 2008 5:19AM
people aren't going to be able to get their hands on a wii readily until late 08, early 09.
After two struggling consoles, I dont think Nintendo would shoote themselves in the foot and alienate the public by phasing out a system people just got. People would see that the last one, to them, had a life span of about a year and half, and as a result assume that the same will happen with the next gen, and will pass on it.
Kassu @ Feb 15th 2008 7:56AM
I think we will cath a glimpse of a new N console in late 2009, when they will likely introduce their new handheld. It's likely to be released in 2011.
Nintendo has got their hands on some serious moneys, to pack a serious punch with the next console.
HellsHammer @ Feb 15th 2008 2:40PM
Snes came out in 91'
Nintendo ceased production in 99'
and games were designed in Japan until 03'.
Spanning roughly 8-12 years, selling 49 million units worldwide.
Wii has been out for one year
and has already sold 20 million units worldwide.
and Wii only lasts 3 years?
Don't think so.
Deozaan @ Feb 15th 2008 8:02PM
I disagree with the analyst since many people still have not been able to find a Wii in the store 16 months after it's release in the NTSC regions.
hvnlysoldr @ Feb 16th 2008 1:15PM
NES dominated Genesis/Mega Drive until Sonic came out. 'Nuf said.
Wite_oyster @ Feb 18th 2008 5:16AM
I think that we are going to start seeing consoles life spans start to be longer. There are a number of reasons why in my opinion that might occur, but cost is a big one.
But 2010 is only two years away. The Wii and PS3 have only now been picking up steam software wise. The 360 has been in full swing for a while because it got rushed out early, and in my point of view seems to be loosing steam. I could maybe see a new xbox come out in two years, but not the next Nintendo or Playstation.
The DS is, what about three and a half years old? Three years? I forget, but it is going strong, and I see it lasting much longer than the traditional four years. Of course Nintendo has probably been working on their next handheld since right after the DS launched, but it has a lot of life left in it.
That is my theory anyway. Instead of four year life cycles, I think it will start to be more like six.
Sony is showing it works with the PS2 which has lasted way longer than the standard four years. And it makes sense in many ways to keep the life going. From a software point of view also four years is pathetic. Often some of the best games come at the end of a hardwares life cycle. It takes time for developers to really learn how to use and be comfortable with new hardware. Four years is just to short these days. Back when developing games was cheaper, required less staff, and was more simple, it was different. But now, when it takes years to make a game, a four year console cycle is to short.