Pachter foresees Wii coup in 2008

by Candace Savino { Jan 18th 2008 at 7:00PM }

2007 was the year of the Wii. So, which console's cuisine will reign supreme in 2008? According to super-analyst Michael Pachter, that would be the PS3.

In the latest issue of EGM, Pachter predicts that the Wii will fall to the PS3 this year. The thing that will bring about this fall is not software (well, that too), but price. That's right, Pachter predicts that the price will soon be right for the PS3. The Wedbush Morgan analyst stated, "I think the Wii momentum will last until the Playstation 3 is under $300, so another year."

Perhaps Pachter is making too many assumptions: Will the PS3 drop to under $300? And if so, does that necessarily mean that Nintendo won't cut the price of the Wii to compete? If Nintendo doesn't price drop, will people even care (check eBay, for example)?

Of course, it's his job to make assumptions, so we suppose we can't fault him for that.

[Via NeoGAF]

Tags: analyst, EGM, michael-pachter, pachter, wedbush-morgan

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

dib8rman @ Jan 25th 2008 11:46AM

January 2008 comes to a close - I remember when people would compare sales when they went into the system war issue, then the transition set via well its cheaper and it's just a fad, the hype will die - then the transition was complete to ignorant people now getting a little bit of knowledge and argued specs.

It's January 2008 by this post - I you want reality, then here it is, as of today the Wii's global demand is almost 14 times higher and rising over the ps3 and almost 5 times higher than the 360's.

The outside scope is another matter, but as far as systems go, the Wii is marketed as targeting Everyone, and everyone with clearification means everyone including non-gamers. Nintendo wouldn't abandon their "hardcore" fan base.

If anything the PS3 owners should be happy due to the Wii introducing non-gamers to games, in another year or so those new gamers might get HD-TV's and want to experiment with a PS3.

For 1 year we've been battling it out over which system or which combination of systems makes the winner, not realizing were just being a bunch of elitists telling people what to do how to do. But its not exactly our fault its this blasted internet XD.

To end this wall of text I will say - I own a Wii and a PS3, I'm satisfied with both, both do what their supposed to - the PS3 goes on the Web plays movies, has a camera and all these other thing and it plays games, and the Wii brings a new way to get depth out of your games, and brings joy to me when I play games like "No More Heros" its mature, its has great game play, its solid on the mechanics. The few bad things said about it, seemed negligable at best, By the time you get to rank 5 the world map is filled with stuff to do. I guess I'm saying, stop feeling the need to defend which console you have or intend on getting.

Tyler @ Jan 18th 2008 7:04PM

Pah, I say.

Mr Khan @ Jan 18th 2008 7:15PM

While the opinion in some circles (namely the VGChartz forums) is that the PS3's resurgence is inevitable

But you have to beat the 360 before you can think about beating Wii

2008 will definitely be better for the PS3 (MGS4, it's been too long), but it will also be good for Wii. Wii Fit for the casuals, Brawl for the hardcore, and Mario Kart for both.

FX-1 @ Jan 20th 2008 9:00PM

Right on, right on.

But might I say, that there is now way that MGS4 will remain exclusive. I just can't see it happening, especially with Snake in Brawl and all.

Fiefdom @ Jan 18th 2008 7:18PM

I have both. They are both good systems with their own different games. When the PS3 eventually drops below $300 (I won't pretend I can make a guess as to when like an analyst) then its sales are apt to increase as more and software is produced for it. But... that's the case for any decent console. The Wii will also retain an influx of games and if it begins to lose momentum then Nintendo will drop the price. Demand for the Wii will drop but it may not begin to taper. The DS is an example of this. It was ridiculously hard to find a DS Lite during the 2006 holiday season. It is no much easier as the supply has increased and the demand has slowed a little, but demand hasn't continued to decelerate but has since been relatively static (excluding the 2007 holiday season, but the holidays result in spikes for all game systems).

It's stupid to act as if one can accurately determine whether the PS3 will gain significantly firmer ground or come in much slower. Will Final Fantasy's legacy make PS3 sales explode as Halo 3 did for the 360? Who knows, Super Mario Sunshine didn't do as much for the GameCube as it could have. Until the PS3 delays the price announcement, the PS3 was expected to decimate the competition due to it being of the PlayStation brand. That didn't happen, just as the N64 didn't quite ride the wave of the SNES's success. We'll see what games come out, how many systems those games sell, and then see how the numbers turn out in another twelve months. :/

Joop @ Jan 18th 2008 7:52PM

Why are people still giving this hack any credit? He's been saying the PS3 is going to take over ever since launch, he just keeps pushing the timeline back.

hvnlysoldr @ Jan 18th 2008 11:51PM

I don't give him much credit. But it's nice to hear what the outside world thinks of our business outlook.

vidGuy @ Jan 18th 2008 7:56PM

If the PS3 doesn't drop to under $300 until next year, wouldn't that make 2008 the Wii's and the PS3 would be waiting until 09?

Pachter has been SO wrong SO many times that I can't really agree with anything he says. There's some slight truth to his prediction; of course the PS3 and 360 will seriously edge out some Wii sales when they drop in price. But we must consider a few things:

1) The Wii will likely drop to $199 by Holidays 08.
2) Consumers who purchase the Wii are very different than PS3 buyers. I'd say the crossover is less than 1 million users. Anybody picking PS3 over Wii would be a small blip on the radar.
3) The Wii is only picking up steam; the game selection coming in 08 is going to seriously dominate the PS3's library.
4) The 360 is quickly becoming the 'other' system to own. I have one next to my Wii and I see no reason to even consider getting a PS3. Few who research the situation (via word-of-mouth or online reviews) would come to a different conclusion. If any system is going to displace Wii sales, it's the XBOX360, at least in America. In Japan, where the XBOX doesn't sell well, it may well be the PS3. But that won't be enough to close the gap they are seeing in other markets.

So, will the PS3 pick up steam? Yes, through 2008 and even into the next decade. But the Wii and 360 are going to stay well on top of it through this whole generation.

Psy @ Jan 18th 2008 8:49PM

I have to strongly disagree with your third point. Game preference is an immensely opinionated matter. I, for example, have only 4 upcoming Wii games I'm looking forward to (and the existence of one of them at this point is questionable), compared to 9 PS3 games, 5 of which are exclusive. I'm rather disappointed in Wii's upcoming library--especially third party titles.

Right now, I'd have to say that PS3's library is going to dominate Wii's. But again, that's not for any one person to decide.

Likewise, I'm on the other side of the spectrum on your fourth point. I won't turn this into a PS3 vs. 360 war, but strictly speaking about the games, the PS3 has many more exclusives that I'm looking forward to, and for those that are multiplatform, I prefer free online play. And in case you were wondering, I've had no problems with it. But I've also had no problems with Vista, so maybe I'm just lucky.

FANBOY DISCLAIMER: I camped out for 12 hours for a Wii on day one. I purchased a PS3 months later after researching specs, features, software library, etc. for it and the 360.

vidGuy @ Jan 18th 2008 9:03PM

All good points, Psy, but I'd have to say you are in the extreme minority. In terms of 360 v PS3, the only real edge anyone in the mainstream gives Sony's box is in BluRay playback. Microsoft has done a great job eeking their way into the market.

In terms of library strength, I was referring to potential sales. Brawl is guaranteed to be a multi-million copy seller, and I think Wii Fit is going to dominate the sales chart for a few months after its release. There are probably another three to five games that will top 1 million sold that should be released on Wii in 08. The only games that I see being so popular on the PS3 are MGS4 and Final Fantasy XIII (who knows if those actually get released this year) and of course Madden 09, which will be beat by the 360 version.

SolidSnake2K7 @ Jan 19th 2008 4:48PM

vidguy what exactly does the 2008 wii lineup have over ps3’s? SSBB & Mario Kart VS MGS4 and FF13 (FF13 is still slated for 2007 release). I think they both are equal. Dont even mention Wii Play that casual gimmick is no where near the calibur of those 4 games.

vidGuy @ Jan 19th 2008 5:32PM

I completely agree with you regarding game quality/caliber. However, read above. Quality was not my argument. I see at least four games on Wii that will sell more than a million copies, to PS3's two (if they both come out). Big sellers push consoles.

vidGuy @ Jan 19th 2008 5:32PM

gorecki @ Jan 18th 2008 8:22PM

Here are the combinations of consoles that people might have, and a description of who would fit into the market:

Wii only.

gorecki @ Jan 18th 2008 8:23PM

Huh? Didn't post properly. Try again:

Here are the combinations of consoles that people might have, and a description of who would fit into the market:

Wii only. - Casuals, super-loyal Nintendo fanboys.
Xbox 360. - Semi-hardcores, frat boys.
PS3 only. - Spotty nerds, uninformed PS1/2 owners.

Xbox 360 and Wii. -Hardcores.
PS3 and Wii. - Hardcores.
Xbox 360 and PS3. - Nobody.

Xbox 360, PS3 and Wii. - Super-hardcores.

So the Wii is scooping up most of the casual gamers, plus hardcore gamers as a second/third console.

The PS3 may get a few sales due to it being a Playstation __, but apart from that only hardcore gamers will own it, and probably will own a Wii too.

Wii wins.

David W. @ Jan 19th 2008 10:49AM

I have a Wii and 360 and wouldn't consider myself a hardcore gamer...

Mr Khan @ Jan 19th 2008 2:42PM

The Nintendo-haters (or psuedo-hardcore) are the PS3 + 360 owners

The true hardcore are those who own all (although that doesn't include me, but you have to respect those willing to have plunked $1250 + tax for the top SKUs of each console at launch just to be able to experience everything good)

FX-1 @ Jan 20th 2008 9:15PM

It's more like this from my point of view:

Wii only: casuals/cool people like me :) who don't aprove of PS3 or 360/people looking for something different

PS3 only: simple minded fool who was won over by the wrong statistics

360 only: semi-casuals/XBots/MSfanboys(slightly different from the XBot)/Halo nerds/people who think they're hardcore by playing solely online

Wii&PS3: More or less reasonable people who wanted something different but were also tempted by a few PS3 exclusives

Wii&360: More or less reasonable people who wanted something different but were also tempted by a few 360 exclusives/people who bought 360 when it first came put expecting it to be the new 3rd party focus and then wanted something different

PS3&360: People who are so obsessed with Nintendo hatred because they want to appear hardcore (the pseudo-hardcore) that they actually bought both even though they rarely use one. Basically, people we need not concern ourselves with.

All three: Could either be the super-hardcore gamer/or the neutral gamer who chooses to not take part int eh "console wars". (they just don't understand :) )

Leeroy @ Jan 19th 2008 12:06AM

I must confess I haven't been in the lest bit interested in the PS3 until now, but I am getting more & more bored with the Wii and this years release schedule doesn't exactly fill me with hope.

There's only one game left of big interest to me and that's MarioKart, hope Nintendo aren't concentrating too much on Wii Fit and future balance board possibilities and neglect this game otherwise I'm out of here.

I do get the feeling that the despite the staggering number of Wii consoles that are selling, the software sales must be pretty low as let's face it the majority of Wii games are unthinkably poor :-(

No1Dad @ Jan 19th 2008 2:31AM

The biggest problem for PS3 and 360 is the price. Hardcore gamers who really appreciate graphics, mulitplayer are always going to play on the PC where both are still superior, especially the graphics. For example, would you rather play COD4 on PS360 or the PC? It's a no brainer. The casual gamer never going to drop 500 bucks on a console. He's far more likely to pay 250 to play Mario and whatnot.

David W. @ Jan 19th 2008 10:51AM

I much prefer playing COD4 on the 360 as opposed to the PC...Never liked shooters on the PC for some reason...Only game I even really play on the PC are RTS's, AOE3, C&C, etc...

HellsHammer @ Jan 19th 2008 4:03AM

I think it really comes down to million dollar sellers, the huge titles that move systems.

Xbox360 has Halo3
Wii has Mario Galaxy
but short of Square remaking Final Fantasy 7, PS3 is bummed. (and unless PS3 drops to $300 real quick, I honestly don't think even Metal Gear Solid could save it)

Dyson @ Jan 19th 2008 6:08PM

Do not doubt the power of LittleBigPlanet. :D

KnaveX @ Jan 20th 2008 1:28AM

Not even metal gear could save it? How about resistance 2? motorstorm 2? GTA4? Little Big Planet (Which reggie thinks wii can pull off)? Haze? Killzone 2? Infamous? 2 Days 2 Vegas? Home (Its not a game but it will rock) Come on, look stuff up. I love wii but it got boring fast. And I didnt sell it on ebay this christmas for a bajillion \dollars because deep inside, even if I am a little pissed off at nintys decisions (No DVD?, feature from last gen? Not even a gigabyte of space? 480p is the limit?[although smash bros brawl looks promising]) I am a hardcore nintendo fan. And Im waiting for smash bros which got delayed to dust off my wii and play it. Wii coup why? Because third parties dont sell, havent you noticed, the online is weak and this generation just focuses on that alot, they chose inferior hardware to create what could have been an even better console. Weve been stolen by nintendo hasnt anyone noticed? If a ps3 now takes $400 to make how much do you think a wii? Grab a new gamecube, update its graphics, give it online and some ports, put a waggle controller and youve got something that should basically sell for even less. Sorry for the rant. Until March 9

HellsHammer @ Jan 20th 2008 4:43AM

Look stuff up?

It's funny, with the exception of GTA4(which is also on a cheaper system), I did have to look those up. To me, none of those games make PS3 worth the 4 (or 5) hundred dollar cost.

Not to say Wii or 360 are phenomenal, I really don't have anything against PS3, it's library is just unappealing to me. (Though, I still hope for a Shadow of the Colossus 2.)

Ponweed @ Jan 19th 2008 8:09AM

Gorecki, I have only a Wii and a DS and still consider myself hardcore. Just the Wii's controls and library dominates the PS3 in my opinion. The only reason I may get a PS3 sometime is Bluray. So I can also pick up Ghostbusters and Ratchet and Clank.

HellsHammer @ Jan 19th 2008 3:18PM

I've heard Ghostbusters will be on Wii also. The Wiimote, in my opinion, will only make it better.

vidGuy @ Jan 19th 2008 10:22AM

So am I reading this wrong or does Pachter's quote imply that Wii wins 2008 and PS3 dominates 2009?

blueblur @ Jan 19th 2008 10:44AM

i swear patcher is a playstation fanboy, hes never said any thing good about nintendo ever! hes more than inlove with the ps3 and will say anything to satisfy his own confiction, hes far from a porfessional

blueblur @ Jan 19th 2008 12:28PM

plus hes making these assumptions as if nintendo is going to do absolutely nothing this year honestly a guy like this should be fired, he never considers the opposing and just hammers it as quick as possible as he prays for a dualshock 3 at his playstation shrine, i swear people with such a strong bias opinion like patchers just make me sick.

Fiefdom @ Jan 19th 2008 12:43PM

"2) Consumers who purchase the Wii are very different than PS3 buyers. I'd say the crossover is less than 1 million users. Anybody picking PS3 over Wii would be a small blip on the radar."

What is this number based on? What's the projected crossover rate for the Wii and the 360? What's the ratio in comparison to the number of PS3s and 360s sold? As a Wii owner I personally found Folklore and the upcoming Disgaea 3 more attractive than Halo 3 and Bioshock. Do you have any actual numbers or statistics to support your claim or did you just make it up from casual observation?

vidGuy @ Jan 19th 2008 12:59PM

Observation of in-store consumers, mainstream media, gaming message boards, and gaming website polls, daily for 700-800 days. I don't claim accuracy, unlike these "analysts", even though all they do is make up numbers too. This is generally what you see though:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2841
360 and Wii 14.87%
PS3 and Wii 2.98%

It's all well and good that you enjoy the PS3, but the majority of PS3 owners don't have a Wii and the majority of Wii owners don't have a PS3. That's all I'm saying. The 360 is a much more popular companion console.

Ponweed @ Jan 19th 2008 3:59PM

hellshammer, the wii ghost busters will be a mini game collection.

Esenkay @ Jan 20th 2008 1:25PM

I am a Nintendo Fanboy, but I can definatly see a rise in PS3 in 2008.

Why?
1. BluRay. With almost EVERY movie studio under it's belt HDDVD is bound to fail, and people are switching to HD these days. PS3 is the cheepest BluRay player around, and it can play games + more.
2. Software. After playing Wii since Nov 19, 06 I am feeling the itch for a more powerful system and mature games. The mature games Wii DOES have are few and far between. I feel Wii can not compete in this "mature" market.

I am not saying that PS3 will take over the market from Nintendo, I am just saying it will start. I hope Nintendo is watching over their shoulder.

blueblur @ Jan 20th 2008 8:25PM

get off the site please and throw your wii out the window because you practically just spat on it, fanboy my ass

Esenkay @ Jan 20th 2008 9:29PM

Don't need to be a spaz. What a baby! Just stating some facts.

vidGuy @ Jan 20th 2008 10:30PM

I've always found Zelda and other similarly themed games to be more mature than your average blood-and-sex shooter, but to each his own. That's why I actually recommend two systems this gen, the Wii and your choice of 360 or PS3. I'm a Wii60 gamer myself so I get almost anything I want.

wiiboy101gezzauk2008 @ Jan 20th 2008 5:32PM

dream on sony fans dream on ps3 goes cheep guess what wii goes even cheeper do these idiots believe that only ps3 can price drop sorry wronggggg wii can allso drop in price and increase production and increase advertizing and add new colours and add newer versions of wii etc etc etc these ps fanboys analists need to wake the hell up analist my arse more like sony fanboy talking crap

buying a sony ps3 is the act of a person with deep personal inteligents issues dualshock in 2008 and long loadtimes sorry that is 10000000000% poor dire idiot stupid console design

no true gamer chooses dualcocks over wiimote etc and no casual wants button bashing they want 3d motion

why carnt mr and mrss sony fan not see a obsolete design starring them in the face anyone wanting dualshitfestshock over the wonder that is wiimote is a insane baffoon fanboy nob jocky delouding there own minds with sony loyalty

WHAT IS A GAMES CONSOLE/////WHAT IS REQUIRED IN DESIGNING A GAMES CONSOLE////WHAT IS A GENUINE EVOLUTION IN CONSOLE DESIGN////WHAT IS THE PURPOSE OF A GAMES CONSOLE

ANSWER THOSE QESTIONS HONESTLY AND PS3 BECOMES A JOKE AND wii A GOD

PS3 IS A JACK OF ALL TRADES MEDIA HYPE BOX WITH MAJOR GAMING ISSUES BAD CONTROLS OUT DATED CONTROLS AND SLOWWWWWWWW BLU GAY DRIVE

FX-1 @ Jan 20th 2008 9:19PM

I'm really starting to hate this guy. It seems like everything he says could just as easilly come from some Pseudo-hardcore (thanks for that word, Mr Kahn!) loser that foams anti-Nintendo. . . ness. . . at the mouth.

Gonzo @ Jan 21st 2008 2:49PM

I'll probably get a ps3 when it goes down to 300.

I never really thought about it until I got an hdtv for a good price but now I want to open that thing up and see what it can do.

I got the ps2 for the selection: GTAs, Burnouts, and Katamaris. I just hope that the ps3's GTAs, Burnouts, and LittleBigPlanets hold up to the expectations I have. I also like the fact that Wii and ps3 online service is free. I have enough bills at the moment, thanks.