Pachter predicts HD Wii
by JC Fletcher 
{ Aug 1st 2007 at 12:50PM }
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter thinks that, just as Nintendo eschewed the normal method of competing in the "console war"-- a console at least as powerful as its contemporaries-- so will they break the pattern of the traditional release cycle. He sees the falling costs of graphics processors and rising public demand for high definition possibly leading Nintendo to release a Wii that can output in HD in "two to three years.""Consumers may hope for improved graphics, and my guess is that Nintendo will comply," Pachter told GamePro. An HD Wii would necessarily be an all-new console, with games designed for HD graphics. Are you ready for Wii 2 in 2009? Is the general public ready for the sting of console obsolescence?
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Crazylink @ Aug 1st 2007 12:55PM
That's a least 4 Gamecubes!
Troy Blackford @ Aug 1st 2007 1:06PM
I think that that might be a little silly, honestly. I have a CRT HD TV (the cheapest kind) and would LOVE for the Wii to put out a little more than 480p. But the Wii was based on what it was based on, and to put out a new version so soon is really going against what the philosophy of Wii is. The contention that the graphics to future games on PS3 and XCROX will 'reach a point' where they will super-impress Wii owners is a little silly. They already look better. I think that the hardcore gamers who are addicted to HD over-estimate the average person's need for high-tech. High FUN is more important to most people.
vidGuy @ Aug 1st 2007 1:11PM
These analysts are so ridiculous sometimes, especially Pachter. Of COURSE there will be an HD Wii. That's like saying there's going to be a next-generation of systems.
However, I strongly disagree with the time table prediction. Just because prices drop and Nintendo COULD release an HD Wii in a few years doesn't mean that would be a smart decision. It would segment their audience and likely kill the normal Wii, which by that time will be a mondo-sized success.
Instead, I see Nintendo releasing a new Wii in 2011-2012 in time with Microsoft's next offering (I don't know if it will be feasible for Sony to have another console). It will still be called the Wii, just like an iPod is always an iPod regardless of generation. It may be tagged Wii Gen2 or something to differentiate it. But it will be roughly as powerful as a 360 and include a tweaked version of the Wii controls for $249.
How's that for a prediction? I think it's a little more risky, and interesting, than 'there will be another Wii'.
Dan @ Aug 1st 2007 1:19PM
I honestly don't think it's a terrible idea. Assuming that they've put out a few killer titles for the Wii by then (I don't feel like they have *at all*) ... a lot of consumers would be comfortable shelling out another $200, especially if backwards compatibility is feasible. That's still cheaper than the PS3.
Jackson Pritt @ Aug 1st 2007 1:20PM
I agree with vidGuy.
There's no way that they're going to announce a replacement console so quickly.
While I agree that consumers DO want higher definition graphics than the Wii is currently capable of, I think it's much more reasonable to assume that they'll simply release a system patch that allows the Wii to output in 720p/720i through component video cables than to assume that they'll totally revamp the console.
Speaking as an HDTV owner myself, the Wii doesn't need more polygons on screen or fancier effects to keep HDTV owners happy, it just needs to output its current content at a higher resolution.
Troy Blackford @ Aug 1st 2007 1:26PM
Well dude, it totally can't output content at a higher res. There is not going to be a software 'patch' or upgrade that will allow it to go beyond its hardware stats. One thing that MIGHT be possible is a usb add on 'powercore' or something like the N64 memory pack that would up its ante. That would rule.... so.... that is at least theoretically possible.
vidGuy @ Aug 1st 2007 1:34PM
Possible, though it would create a bottle neck of USB transfer speeds, which are multiples slower than RAM speeds.
Troy Blackford @ Aug 1st 2007 1:39PM
Let me rephrase that. Nintendo have said that the Wii could output at 780p, but only like still images and things. It doesn't have the horsepower to do 780p with like actual games. Such ability would rule. But whatever! ;)
THE LUU @ Aug 1st 2007 1:45PM
Considering that the Wii has yet to show anyone that it's capable of much more than Sub-Gamecube level graphics and it is still selling as well as it continues to do so, it would appear that consumers aren't really that concerned by graphics or HD.
Nintendo would only consider releasing a HD Wii if SD is phased out completely in the immediate/near future. Even then it would only be done because of technological necessity rather than market demand.
Jumbo @ Aug 1st 2007 1:42PM
I seriously doubt nintendo would burn its bridges by releasing a console that soon.
Not to mention, as it becomes cheaper to manufacture, the wii will only increase in profitability over time.
Troy Blackford @ Aug 1st 2007 1:42PM
Yeah, they should have had firewire ports instead ha.
pedro @ Aug 1st 2007 1:49PM
perfect example of why analysts have no business predicting anything to do with gaming. all this stands to do is screw with nintendo's stock price.
do like the picture... the picture of two gamecubes stuck together would have worked too
Kayura @ Aug 1st 2007 1:52PM
IMHO, that simply will not happen so early in the Wii console life. I think we'll see a version two Wii down the line, but it won't be such a huge swing that they would make different (HD) content exclusive to it. I think we'll see a second hardware revision, but it will more than likely be a form factor change, and perhaps more internal memory. But that will be it - Nintendo just isn't that stupid. It's not about HD or graphics for the Wii, and it's working for them. Besides, it looks pretty good at 480p considering...
If we could just get some good VC releases...
navstar @ Aug 1st 2007 3:17PM
Some HD USB add-on would be impossible. It simply doesn't have the bandwidth to deliver uncompressed hi-def video signals in real time. USB 2.0 maxes out at 480Megabits/sec. Uncompressed 720p is 840Megabits/sec.
Ihar `Philips` Filipau @ Aug 1st 2007 3:20PM
Well, I think it would depend on success of WiiWare.
Let's get real. Good - but expensive titles - are few. And only really good titles are worth to be published on disks. And to make good titles you have to have good artists. And if you have good artists they can optimize graphics even for 480i.
My prediction.
I expect gaming to return to its "amateurish" roots for some time - thanks in part to M$' XBLA. (future WiiWare launch is more or less confirmed by Nintendo. Sony also said that dev kits would be easily available to indies.)
Wii is success. But network distribution of games would soon kill game disks (PS3' BluRay included - I even expect that PS3 would have most advanced downloadable games since it has most expensive media right now. Hence harder push from game publishing companies.)
One thing that you can NOT change game which is already on disk. But downloadable games - they can be updated. Wii's Zelda:TP - is 480p. You can't change that. But XBLA's Settlers - can be changed by MSFT anytime they like. Even probably to include 1080p in future Xboxes.
I think we should expect more of HD pressure from amateur' (after WiiWare launch) community than from big gaming corporations. Nintendo itself included. Because indies do not have capacity to optimize graphics for low resolution - they would gain most from transition to HD.
Aaron @ Aug 1st 2007 4:11PM
Yeah, because my grandma really cares that her Wii is in HD.
Nice try, Pachter. Most of us have been riding with this company longer than you have, and we know a thing or two about Nintendo's ways.
Mr Khan @ Aug 1st 2007 4:00PM
I've always felt that the successor to the Wii will probably appear after ATSC becomes the standard format in 2009 (so it would appear in 2010), and will be HD Compatible, probably outstripping the 360 in some regions, and matching it in others (higher clocked processor, but same RAM, and probably with a Blue laser read format of some kind), and retaining the same controls and such
I think the drastically technologically inferior Wii warrants a faster entry into the 8th generation, and Nintendo's mad profits makes such an entry easily possible
But a USB HD attachment would be feasible (it isn't going to happen, believe me), even though USB 2.0 lacks the bandwidth to RENDER what's needed, couldn't it just be used as a V-RAM repository to give Hollywood the space it needs to render in HD?
I do feel a system update may be forthcoming to fully unlock the HD capabilities that are mysteriously there in the Opera Browser's code
Roman @ Aug 1st 2007 4:04PM
Anyone else read the title as "Preacher predicts HD Wii"?
Hallelujah, praise Jesus, God is a Zelda fan and he wants HD!
Axalon @ Aug 1st 2007 9:42PM
Doubtful. If anything, there could be a hardware revision that would allow it to output at 720p or 1080i/p, but Nintendo would demand that any HD capable games are compatible with the original Wii hardware (i.e. the graphical detail is the same on both. The only thing the WiiHD would provide is a boost in resolution)
hvnlysoldr @ Aug 1st 2007 11:21PM
They're outselling everything now so no need to do anything.
tiamat1990 @ Aug 2nd 2007 12:05AM
Much too soon...I really feel that Nintendo could have at least improved the hardware by a considerable amount. I want at least three gamecube's stuck together. Not one and a half.
Justin Hall @ Aug 2nd 2007 2:39AM
vidGuy,
I usually agree with you on most everything, but I just do not see this happening. I really don't see how you can say that it's obvious Nintendo will make an HD Wii. I can't imagine them releasing any kind of new Wii at all before their next (next) generation system.
vidGuy @ Aug 2nd 2007 1:12PM
That's what I mean, Justin. I expect Nintendo to release their next console in 2011-2012, in time for the next generation of consoles (Microsoft's next console will probably be announced in 2010 for release in 2011).
I simply expect them to keep the Wii name... so Nintendo's next generation Wii will have HD and, hopefully, the power of a 360 or so. It'd kind of be cool if they kept the same form factor and made only slight changes to the design. If they kept GC and Wii Gen1 backwards compatibility it would be even sweeter.
This would fit in with Nintendo's adoption of the iPod strategy, in which the product name never changes while large revisions are made every few years (generations of iPods). So, it would be a NEW console, with better hardware, but it would keep roughly the same strategy, controller, etc.
So do we agree on this, too? ;)
Dan @ Aug 2nd 2007 1:21PM
I think Nintendo would be smart to get the "first to market" advantage for next round. Of course, they should have a lot of spies at Microsoft and Sony to figure out what the heck their specs will be. You don't want to undershoot. Not to say that they should release a new system in 2 years, but 2010 might be a good target, to stay ahead of the game.
Justin Hall @ Aug 3rd 2007 2:16AM
vidGuy,
Ah yes I see what you're saying now. Yes we do agree on this as well. It makes sense for them to do exactly that; if they just came out with a whole new system people would be like, "What happened to the whole Wii strategy?" That way the people who got into gaming with the Wii won't be shut out again next time around.
When you said the next Wii will hopefully have the power of a 360 or so, it made me a little sad inside; I wish the Wii was a bit more powerful, but still- it doesn't seem like anyone has really tried yet to work with the Wii's graphical potential, save Twilight Princess. Though hopefully in the near future I will also be the proud owner of an Xbox360.
Justin Hall @ Aug 3rd 2007 2:19AM
Hopefully you'll even see my response. There should be a feature on these comments to "reply" to someone else's comment, then you could get an email or something notifying you if the person commented again.
vidGuy @ Aug 3rd 2007 8:19AM
I only say the power of the 360 because I expect Nintendo to keep releasing system at or around $249, just as they released their consoles at $200 for many generations. Granted prices are going to be quickly declining, but I also expect Nintendo to try to keep their next console small and heat-free, so it may be their best choice. I'd be happy with the 360's power and Wii's control.
Interesting that wiifanboy's "Email me when someone replies" doesn't work yet. Joystiq has user profiles up and running and you can get email notifications to ever reply if you want.
Justin Hall @ Aug 3rd 2007 1:50PM
The 360's power with a Wii would be great indeed, but of course I'll also be eyeing the next Xbox. I wish I wasn't a poor college student, then I could just buy both. But still, I really don't need any more video games for quite some time, I still have so many I need to play or finish. I still have to beat the original Metroid Prime after about a 2 or 3 year hiatus. Very sad, I know.
Hm, wiifanboy should get on this. Another thing I'm finding frustrating is that even though it says that I won't have to confirm a comment in my email if I use the password, when I do, I still have to confirm it.