Analysts promise they're not just making it all up

by Alisha Karabinus { Sep 8th 2006 at 9:25AM }

Ever had the fleeting thought that maybe those video game analysts just don't quite know what they're about? Don't worry, it's not just you -- even they admit that the ever-changing market can be a challenge to ride.

Next-Gen's Krist Graft sat down with Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities to discuss the challenges of predicting the business of video games. How does he do it? The same as any 'armchair' analyst, Pachter keeps up with the news. Some firms (like WMS) change their predictions as often as there are new developments, and this tumultuous week has brought about some major updates. What else? Analysts look for comparisons in gauging what's hot in the console war. He pointed to the success of the DS, particularly games that employ the stylus, as evidence that Nintendo is on the cutting edge of the interactivity that consumers want. Trend-spotting like that forms the basis of so much analysis in video games.

What's the final verdict for us? "The Wii's going to crush," Pachter says. Well, we don't understand all this fancy-schmancy business jargon he's using there, but we have to agree.

Tags: analyst, console wars, ConsoleWars, DS, DS Lite, DsLite, Michael Pachter, MichaelPachter, next generation, Next-Gen, NextGeneration, Nintendo, Wii, WMS

Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)

JonLeung @ Sep 8th 2006 10:27AM

I read about this "crush" comment elsewhere the other day...I think it might have been at Go Nintendo. If anyone's wondering, "to crush" is apparently a very good term. Probably like, "to crush the competition" or along those lines.

truplaya @ Sep 8th 2006 12:48PM

yes....I do think that's what he means. 9_9

I,Robot @ Sep 8th 2006 1:57PM

No they don�t know what they�re talking about. And they change their tune at the drop of a hat. The �experts� weren�t singing the DS�s praise when it first came out. I distinctly remember a lot of smack talk and glances over the DS in favor of the PSP. Oh how times have changed???

Kaiser Soze @ Sep 8th 2006 2:41PM

Analysts promise they're not just making it all up....

Chuckle.... More chuckle... Even more chuckle.... Laughter.... More laughter.... Insane laughter.... Incredible insane sick monster laughter.... Dies of laughter.... R.I.P.

vidGuy @ Sep 8th 2006 3:16PM

Analysts don't make it up. The problem with video game market analysis is that they base their analyses on the wrong factors because they are ill-informed (read: ignorant).

For example, a strong factor in the past predictions that had Sony winning this generation by a land slide was current user base. Many gamers know that Sony's moves have done nothing to reenforce a user base for the PS3. A very large factor to consider when predicting video game sales is the real reason people buy a specific system: the exclusive games. But did any analysis consider Sony's loss of many exclusive titles? I'd be surprised to see any that did.

I doubt any company throws together a 100 page report on intentional BS. The reason they look so, how to say it, stupid to us is that we tend to have a better grasp on the real situations because, as gamers, we know what gamers want.